New England – Australia 2025

I’d be shocked if Barnaby increased his vote share after his drunken escapade on the streets of Canberra, he not only made himself a bigger joke in Australia but an international joke as well.

@Caleb I doubt that would affect his margin. This is a very safe Nationals seat and Labor has only ever held for seven of the 123 years it has existed (Frank Forster served as the member from 1906 until 1913), and that’s not changing anytime soon.

@Caleb that’s a bit disingenuous he was clearly in distress after consuming alcohol mixed with prescription drugs. The person who filmed that without stopping to offer assistance should be more ashamed

I would be surprised if Barnaby doesn’t increase his vote share. Nothing he has done recently is much worse than what he has done before. The voters in New England seem happy with that

id vote for him if i could

Classic regional seat where Labor have totally lost the plot. Back in the 80s they were in spitting distance of winning New England and held the state seat of Northern Tablelands. Then they outsourced to Windsor and Torbay – went swimmingly for a while – especially for them. Then they crashed – spectacularly. What is left – massive National Party margins and Labor playing left right out with consequent losses of morale, resources and most importly – senate votes.

@redistributed that is because the labor has been hijacked by the activists and is no longer the party of the worker most of which in these sorts of seats like coal mining would have been unionised and therefore why they could win just like why labor still win seats like collie Preston, pillars and Kimberley. Bob matter and his father were what they self described as “old labor” but the labor party if the 80s is gone. Bob Hawke would be rolling in his grave.

Hypothetically speaking, is there any conceivable future form of the Labor party that could ever be competitive in or win these regional seats? What kind of policy platform would be needed? Is it even possible for a left-of-centre or centrist party to win conservative rural seats?

Probably not. In the same way a right of centre party could never win inner city seats like Melbourne, Wills, Grayndler, Sydney, Adelaide, Fremantle, Canberra and Clark.

Just wanted to let everyone know that while Labor has already began its campaign in New England, the Nats haven’t bothered.

https://www.instagram.com/laurahughesnewengland/

https://www.facebook.com/LauraHughesLabor

There is a prospect for a Labor win here if Barnaby or his successor really stuffed up and labor found someone you was very popular.
Eg Bill McCarthy Armidale/ nth tablelands
Eg Don Day Casino/ Clarence
Ballina and Lismore stayed with the nats longer than expected based on personal votes
Tweed too eventually will go 5he same way
New England… Labor almost won in 1983
Laurie Daly Was the candidate and Sinclair did not even have an electorate office within new England

Calare/ Bathurst are a similar demographic.. now no chance but later are within range of Labor win

Mick
Problem for Labor in both cases is that they will have to start at zero – they have let everything run down so far there is little left – a few branches and that would be it.

Starting point is np stuffs up
Barnaby’s cattle dog?
Then alp runs an outstanding candidate

Even if Barnaby massacred 100 sheepdogs in the middle of Tamworth the people of New England will probably still vote him back in a landslide.

Labor only has themselves to blame for not giving two hoots about the regions north of the Hunter and west of the divide.

What if. The sheep dog was the nat candidate? Oh s…t it is

Regarding whether Labor could’ve won a seat like this – it has been a non-Labor seat for over 100 years. Except for Tony Windsor, it was always held by a National or Country MP for the past century. Labor was a bit more competitive during the 1980s but it could be partly attributable to Bob Hawke’s and the Labor party’s overall popularity. The Labor vote then steadily declined, after Hawke’s retirement.

The coal mining part is down south where Upper Hunter and Muswellbrook are. A lot of the shrinkage of the coal mining labour force is due to automation and productivity gains. It’s not because of greenies in the Labor party. I read a few weeks back that Port Waratah (Newcastle) saw over 100 million tonnes of coal exports last year – it’s highest amount in a long, long time.

@mick & tommo9 barnaby cheated on his wife with a staffer and got her pregnant then left his wife and kids and married her and still got elected. im pretty half of new england turned up to his wedding too.

labor wont ever win this seat the only chance of nats losing is another really good independent and barnaby retiring.

@votante muswellbrook is close to 50/50 and was more labor at the last election

In New England Labor is not at the moment considered a serious choice here. BUT that can change probably after
Barnaby.. James smythe- Jones the Pitt St farmer?
But nats need to stuff up
AND
Labor needs to be outstanding.
Read about Bill McCarthy

@mick short of commiting murder i cant see them losing. even then labor wouldnt win it would go to another right party or an independent. labor hasnt won this seat since 1910

Barnaby has been dead for years just no body noticed.
Read about Bill McCarthy alp mp for Armidale then Northern tablelands.
He set up a campaign office in Armidale he was the Shadow mp for Armidale.
The boundaries were changed with one vote 1 value… the seat became Northern tablelands effectively a merger with Tetherfield. He still won. The sitting mp for Tetherfield declined to recontest I think.

A state seat is much different to a federal seat. Also Armidale has a strong left vote with the university there. They will won page long before they win new england

The sitting mp for Tetherfield was Tim Bruxner who was very substantial in his own right

The number of people employed in coal mining in both Muswellbrook and Upper Hunter LGAs doubled from 2006 to 2021.